While short-term rates are extremely low, the Fed Funds rate is at 0.375%; monetary policy isn't all that expansionary! The real interest rate -- the fed funds rate minus inflation -- is roughly -1.25%, yet the rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary is about 0%. That's why the Fed isn't in a huge rush to raise rates. I expect one quarter-point rate rise in 2016 and two in 2017.
Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D